Sunday, March 20, 2011

Is our current Recession following Historic Timelines?


The Corrector received the following information from a person claiming to be Mr. Larry Beinhart pointing out some thoughts about the depression and the current recession.  Further reference can be found at Timelines of the Great Depression: 

I would guess we have been given a fictitious name for the credit on this post as Larry Beinhart regularly writes for the Huffington Post and advocates for increasing taxes and going on unfettered spending sprees. See Huffington Post here
Tell us what you think. Can we spend our way to prosperity?

To the HDC Editor;
The current economy is routinely and universally referred to as the worst recession since the Great Depression.
It makes sense, therefore, to look back at government tax and spending policies during the Depression and what the results were.

1932 -- Hoover raises the top tax rate from to 25 to 63 percent.

1933 -- Roosevelt comes into office. He begins spending at the same time that new tax hike comes into effect. The Depression bottoms out.

1934 -- Recovery begins. The GNP rises 7.7 percent, unemployment falls to 21.7 percent.

1935 -- New government spending on public works and rural electrification. A push to strengthen labor and raise wages. New taxes through the creation of Social Security.  The GNP grows another 8.1 percent, and unemployment continues to fall.

1936 -- The top tax rate is raised again. This time to 79 percent.  GNP grows a record 14.1 percent; unemployment falls even further.

1937 -- Roosevelt is afraid of deficits! He cuts spending for 1937.   There's a new recession. It continues for a year.

1939 -- The U.S. borrows, resumes deficit spending, this time on a military build-up. The recession ends.

1941 -- America enters World War II.

In economic terms, it's the New Deal on steroids. The top tax rate goes up to 91 percent. Nonetheless, government spending is so high that by 1945 the deficit is 123 percent of GDP. Unemployment is ended by employing 16 million people directly in the armed forces and millions more are employed producing war material and supporting the military.

The Great Depression is finally over.

When taxes were raised the economy improved. Every time. Deficits had no negative effect on the economy. Indeed, when deficits were at their highest, the economy boomed.

After spending was cut -- to balance the budget -- a recession immediately followed. When taxes were raised and government spending resumed -- with deficits -- that recession ended.

When taxes were raised again, and government spending went sky high, the Great Depression finally ended.

So here we are. We refused to raise taxes. The recession continues. Now, we're going to cut spending.

Thanks for reading

Larry Beinhart

13 comments:

  1. This whole timeline is fiction.

    The depression ended because of excessive spending on WW II. Even homemakers who had never worked before had jobs supporting the war efforts. When the men came back after the war the economy was robust and continued to improve.

    The truth of the matter is that Roosevelt’s spending and work programs were not working and the War was the only thing that saved the economy. Furthermore those same entitlement type programs begun during his administration are the very reason we are continuing to sink into the depths of despair even today.

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  2. I have to agree with Rat Attacker. At least that is what I learned in school. Many of the moves made by FDR were considered to prolong the depression.
    If the the stimulus package turns our economy around; I believe it will be for a short term and when the same underlying problems that caused this recession come back the next downturn will be even worse. Eventually the bills have to be paid.

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  3. Another thing I forgot to mention was that Presidents Hoover, Truman and Eisenhower all deported illegals to make jobs available to returning veterans. That was also a big boost in the nation’s economy

    President Obama should also give that a try instead of more stimulation

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  4. the great depression happened the same way the great recession happened...
    the politico scum gave the banksters the keys to the treasury...
    war hasn't worked as a stimulus this time and it won't.
    jobs won't be shipped back to the u s by any country in south america or asia.
    the word "entitlement" is code for social security...
    doesn't cost the government a dime and never has...
    oh, wait...
    after they raided the trust fund and ran it to zero and had to fund it out of the fed budget...
    it's now the big problem...bullshit.
    one problem is production...
    a budget that is 54% military produces nearly nothing for every dollar dedicated.
    money for nothing and the chicks are free.

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  5. Do any of you even know the difference between a recession and depression?

    If not I would stay away from what caused and ended "The Great Depression". I've studied the issue in college and since. It's like trying to figure out why we were in Vietnam.

    Stimulating the economy with cash is a trick that pre-dates John Maynard Keyens theories on the issue. In the 1740's or so the British brought gold to Boston that was used to stimulate the Colonies economy.

    Every Administration in recent history use Keyens. One side likes to cut taxes and deficit spend to make up the difference while the other likes to raise taxes and deficit spend to keep it going. I think Keyens is rolling over in his grave disgusted in what they've done to his theories.

    Our current economy has some fundamental flaws brought on by stimulus spending by both the Republican and Democratic administration. Inflation could very well bring our economic growth to a standstill.

    It economic growth slows we have a recession. If our economy shrinks we have a depression. That's my two bits till a real economist chimes in.

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  6. so...
    since we have no growth...
    AND we have deficit spending...
    what we really have...
    is a depressing recession??

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  7. If I recall from Ronald Reagan:

    "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose your job and a recovery is when President Carter loses his!"

    I think the same applies today, except we can remove Carter and insert Obama.

    What a trainwreck this guy's policies have turned out to be. Did anyone catch the latest news over the weekend that the CBO has determined that Mr. Obama's budget shorts his deficit predictions by as much as $2.3Trillion! What did he forget to carry his one?

    He should have won the nobel aware for ineptness, I could see that.

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  8. professor...

    you must not have looked up the facts on the gipster...

    ran on smaller gov...
    tripled it...

    ran on less gov spending...
    increased x5...

    ran on less taxes...
    largest increase in soc sec taxes in history...
    in his sleep-state while he signed the hike...
    forgot the mike was open and said..."they'll never pay that one off".

    you might be too young to remember the deregulation binge he went on...
    including banks...
    which immediately resulted in 16% home loans and 20% car loans.
    it all threw us into the nastiest "recession" in years.

    but hey...
    it was the gypster, er, gipper.

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  9. This post is total bunk and Larry Beinhart is a liberal idiot.

    I can’t believe you even posted such nonsense. What was happening in 1928 and what is happening now are two totally different scenarios.

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  10. the thieving politico-corporate scum ripped them off then...
    they ripped us off now...
    not so different.
    and pretty predictable...

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  11. Johnson perhaps you should take heed of your own advice and read some facts by educated people who study economics for a living before opining on subjects you only really think you understand.

    Try reading the 1996 Cato Institute study (PA 261) by economists Bill Niskanen and Stephen Moore who studied the Reagan years and compared them to the years preceedhing his administration and those following it into the Clinton years. They reached the conclusion that in 8 of the 10 economic variables economists measure, Reagan's policies outperformed those of his predecessor and successors.

    You are correct that massive deficits were incurred under the Reagan administraiton; however, unlike the Obama situation we find ourselves in now, economic activity was bustling and the employment rate dropped and unprecendted levels.

    You level the deregulation bomb at the Gipper, but forget that the interest rates you refer to were the making of Carter's policies not Reagans. In fact the 20% rates you refer to came in the year Reagan was sworn into office, but dropped every year thereafter. I am saying you may not have had a 20% load? I don't know. According to the Federal Reserve from 1976-1981 the average interest rate at prime grew from just over 7% when Ford left office and capped out at over 20% when Reagan took office. Reagan cut that rate from 1981 until 1987 from 20 to 8 all the while working to ensure the inflation dropped from a high of 14% in 1981 to 2% in 1986.

    With productive growth more than doubling and GDP holding steady at an average of 3% and total revenue growth to the Feds increasing from $500 billion to just over $1 Trillion, that's not bad.

    Budget deficits did soar; however, and was the beginning of the blank check that still exists in DC and is a very reasonable criticism, but even on his worst day, Reagans debt never exceeded $2 Billion and Obama racked that up in one year alone. Also Reagan's debt as a percentage of GDP never exceeded 42%, while Obama's is nearing 60% with a substantially higher GDP and debt.

    There are many other comparative studys of Reagan economic policies and a lot of crap out there. Believe what you will as I expect you to, but don't question my understanding of economics before first being able to defend the insanity coming out of your mouth first. Cranky's right, come up with a plan instead of constantly harping!

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  12. ah, professor...

    i sure am thankful for all you papered professional experts...
    that saved us from those nasty bubbles that threatened to destroy millions of amelikan's futures. us dumb-asses would have missed them...
    we don't have much luck with the chicken entrails we use instead of the cato institute...
    course, then...
    we wouldn't have made trillions on it anyway.

    say...
    is that cato institute...
    the same one receiving funding from the koch brothers? you know, the descendants of the stalin patsy of years past... the ones so dedicated to free-dumb that they believe there should be a LAW against collective bargaining.

    some other papered professional experts felt that the current wars made sense to...well, to billionaires...why else would $12 bil show up on pallets in iraq?
    it really wouldn't be so bad if we could just WIN one now and then...
    otherwise...
    the whole crew might just be seen as war CRIMINALS or even involved in crimes against humanity.

    be proud, professor, be proud...
    your flag is still there.

    oh...
    as soon as you and cranky get those great solutions drafted...
    you know, the ones you put up every day or so here...
    let us all know...
    we'll be holding our breath.

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  13. ah, professor...

    you do profess...

    on behalf of my damn self and all the rest of us poor dimwits that can't really recognize that while we are being hosed by the phony "federal" bank, it is you papered professional experts that hold the hope for the future...
    just like you held the hope of the past...

    would that cato institute be the same cato institute that receives funds from the koch brothers...
    you know...
    those guys who descend from the stalin patsy...
    the ones who are so dedicated to free-dumb that they work tirelessly for a LAW against collective bargaining.

    and just quick like...
    i want to thank you for the page after page you and cranky sweat over...
    of solutions to our present problems...

    let us wave de flag together.

    ReplyDelete